She looks so beautiful. I'm so very happy for her.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Bad customer service...
So I just spent another 30 minutes on the phone with TiVo. Here's the background:
Last month my wife noticed that our monthly TiVo bill increased from $8.95 to $14.95 and asked me to look into it. I checked online and there was no indication as to why the fee had increased. So I called TiVO.
They proceeded to tell me that the reason behind this was that our "Lifetime Service" TiVo had not connected to the TiVo service for the last 6 months and therefore we were no longer eligible for the "Multiple TiVo" discount. I found this to be unreasonable as the lifetime unit had not been sold or anything and I had not notified TiVo that I was canceling it or anything. I explained my case to the service rep and he agreed and told me that he would credit us the $6 and that if we plugged in the TiVo and had it "call home" that our account would revert to the "Multiple TiVo" discount pricing. I hung up the phone a satisfied customer. I have been a customer with TiVo for nearly 10 years, a true early adopter and have purchased TiVos as gifts and have recommended them to many friends who have since purchased.
Fast forward to this afternoon. The lifetime TiVo is happily running and phoning home via my internet connection every fifteen minutes. The charge hits the credit card again and it is the $14.95 rate. I'm annoyed that I have to call again but I wasn't expecting the treatment that I got.
I explain the situation to the service rep and sit on hold for ten minutes while she spoke to a level 2 support rep. She comes back on the phone and apologizes for the problem and tells me that their billing system needs this other TiVo to continue to connect for another month. I'm OK with this and ask her to credit my account for the $6. This is where the service falls apart.
She explains to me that she "can't" credit me for this and that while the monthly fee should revert to the $8.95 level in the next billing cycle that I will have to make another call to TiVo to get the credit. I've now been on the phone for 20 minutes and am very annoyed to hear that they are going to make me make another minimum 10 minute long call to them in a month. Why not simply credit me now. She puts me on hold again and comes back to explain that their billing system doesn't allow her to credit an account for the same thing twice.
Now this is blatant crap. Every billing system has an override capability. I know it, she knows it and I tell her that. I'm trying hard to be polite because I know she is just following company policy. After I explained that this is very poor service and that I would like to speak to her level 2 person she puts me on hold again and finally comes back and tells me that she can in fact credit my account but that if it happens again next month that they will be unable to credit me again. I tell her that's fine, I'll just call back again and make the same complaint next month if they don't fix the issue and that I will be forced to re-evaluate my account with them should they attempt to keep $6 that is not theirs to keep.
The whole fiasco took well over 30 minutes. It cost me more in time than the $6 and it damned sure cost TiVo more than the $6. I was a big fan of TiVo. If this happens next month I may very well cancel a service that I have come to rely upon. I'll be pissed about it and I'll miss the service but I am not going to let them take advantage of me.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Massachusetts
OK, I'm getting really tired of people bashing Massachusetts. It started with the Dukakis run for President in EDIT: 1988 and has continued for the last 20+ years. Even our own Governor Romney trashed us during his (thankfully) brief Presidential campaign.
So, let's talk about Massachusetts shall we? Here are some interesting things about MA.
Massachusetts is currently ranked #3 in the country for "Best Educated"
Well, of course a state routinely referred to as "Taxachusetts" would have a good educational system, after all those tax monies must be going somewhere right?
Massachusetts currently ranks #13 in Total Gross State Product (5th per capita). I guess we can afford those tax dollars.
That might be because we are #3 in personal income per capita.
We are the #3 Healthiest state. I guess those tax dollars are really helping keep us healthy too.
Oh and as far as Obesity goes? We rank #50. Least obese.
How about the divorce rate in godless, liberal Taxachusetts? We rank #50. Yep. They were right about us. Oh wait. Nope we have the LOWEST divorce rate of any state in the nation.
Since we are Taxachusetts we must be spending so much of the money you non-Taxachusetts people earn right? Nope. We rank 40th for states in terms of Federal dollars spent per dollar paid in taxes. For every dollar a Taxachusetts resident puts into the federal coffers, we get back 82 cents. So, you conservative states are a drain on us poor residents of this liberal state.
At the same time us liberal hippy lazy non-working drains on society rank #5 in median household income. I guess those welfare checks are bigger than they used to be.
Oops. Wrong again. It turns out that Massachusetts ranks 25th for households receiving some form of public assistance.
Now, after all of that what exactly are the real tax numbers for MA? Where do we rank according to the Tax Foundation?
While we rank high on the total tax burden per capita, this is actually not due to state taxes. Our high per capita income means that we pay a larger amount of federal taxes than all of you conservative states out there. Yet, as I mentioned above we take back less than we put in. So next time Grover Norquist bitches about liberals, remember, we're financing your state services. On to the stats:
In 2007, Taxachusetts ranked 28th in state/local tax burden. That's right we pay less in state and local taxes than more than half of the US States. Yet we manage to accomplish everything I mentioned above. For Federal taxation burden (and make no mistake, since we get less than we give it is a BURDEN for us liberals to pay for you bottom feeding conservatives). we rank 4th. Yep. You read that right. We are getting completely screwed over.
For the actual state income tax we rank 32nd. For sales tax we rank 45th. Our property taxes are in the top 10. We rank 7th. Of course this is mostly due to the high value of housing in Massachusetts because of the high paying jobs, healthy lifestyle and great educational system we have that makes living here so attractive. Link.
Of course we get questioned often on "patriotism." Well on one of the most basic patriotic things a citizen can do, give service to one's country in the military, Massachusetts ranks #23.
Massachusetts is also the cradle of liberty in the United States. Here was fired the Shot Heard Round the World. Home of the Minutemen, Paul Revere, Sam Adams, and the man who wrote the U.S. Constitutions, John Adams. Oh yeah, that famous signature? That belonged to a Massachusetts Patriot as well.
In MA the Boston Tea Party occurred, the Battle of Bunker Hill, we were a center of the abolitionist movement with William Lloyd Garrison leading the charge, Gay Marriage was legalized, and we became the first state in the Union to have Universal Health Care.
So do me a favor next time you hear someone bashing good ol' Taxachusetts. Set them straight.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
This might be the most disturbing thing about Bush yet
From the ACLU
NEW YORK – A newly disclosed secret memo authored by the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) in March 2003 that asserts President Bush has unlimited power to order brutal interrogations of detainees also reveals a radical interpretation of the Constitution's Fourth Amendment protection from unreasonable search and seizure. The memo, declassified yesterday as the result of an American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit, cites a still-secret DOJ memo from 2001 that found that the "Fourth Amendment had no application to domestic military operations."
This means that President Bush is saying that if he were to institute a military action inside our borders (even against our own citizens) that the law would no longer apply. This is a flat out literal repudiation of the Constitution and our the rights granted to us as citizens.
How can anyone continue to support this administration?!
Rant of the year.
Thank you to Pandagon for so clearly pointing out the problem with anyone who has ever used the term "Feminazi" or anything so clearly anti-woman yet having the gall to act as if they are morally superior at the same time.
I honestly don't think it could have been done better.
Monday, March 31, 2008
The Math
This is the work of another. I have permission to repost it.
THE MATH – Monday, March 31 – After Texas Counties
6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (US)
Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 – 82.5%
********************************************
THE MAGIC NUMBER
Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:
Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 88 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 28.4%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 241 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%
The Huckabee Index – 69 or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed
The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)
Details in spreadsheet: http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040
********************************************
TOTAL DELEGATES
Estimated Total Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,505.5 (518.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,646.5 (377.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 877.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democr...
SUPERDELEGATES
Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/31/08)
Barack Obama – 228 (Source: NBC 3/31/08 plus NC-6)
Remaining Superdelegates – 311
PLEDGED DELEGATES
Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,250.5
Barack Obama – 1,418.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)
OVERALL CONTESTS WON
Hillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30
PRIMARIES WON
Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16
CAUCUSES WON
Hillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14
BLUE AND RED STATES WON
Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)
Total weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,755,095)
Hilary Clinton – 14,047,597
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Status Quo unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+821,164)
Hillary Clinton – 12,858,238
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,208,232 (+614,296)
Hillary Clinton – 12,593,936
Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)
With Florida only added, weighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,460,323)
Hillary Clinton – 14,918,583
With Florida only added, unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+526,392)
Hillary Clinton – 13,729,224
With Michigan only added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,426,786)
Hillary Clinton – 14,375,906
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Michigan only added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+492,855)
Hillary Clinton – 13,186,547
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,132,014)
Hillary Clinton – 15,246,892
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+198,083)
Hillary Clinton – 14,057,533
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT
All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.
Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 236 of 311, or 75.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 232 of 312, or 74.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 224 of 323, or 69.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 220 of 324, or 67.7% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 95 of 311, or 30.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 112 of 312, or 35.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 99 of 323, or 30.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 116 of 324, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON
All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.
Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 207 of 311, or 66.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 312, or 64.9% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 195 of 323, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 191 of 324, or 58.8% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 124 of 311, or 39.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 141 of 312, or 45.0% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 128 of 323, or 39.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 145 of 324, or 44.6% of remaining SDs
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
*********************************************
FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES
These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)
Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 64.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.2%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 63.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.8%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 64.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.0%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 62.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.7%, in all remaining contests
********************************************
POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”
Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.
Pennsylvania (April 22)
American Research Group (3/27) has Senator Clinton at +12.0%
http://americanresearchgroup.com /
Guam (May 3)
No Poll
Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls (2/18) has Senator Obama at +15.0% (This was after Super Tuesday)
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html
North Carolina (May 6)
Public Policy Polling (3/31) has Senator Obama at +18.0%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_0331...
West Virginia (May 13)
Rasmussen Reports (3/20) has Senator Clinton at +28.0%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...
Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll
Oregon (May 20)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll
Montana (June 3)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll
If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!
********************************************
MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN
This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.
Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:
"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”
Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.ph...
(emphasis mine)
********************************************
BROKERED CONVENTION
Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.
Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention
********************************************
OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season.
Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de68e7b6dfa0743...
.
********************************************
Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
1 – Current Figures: http://www.box.net/shared/bmi4rvqscs
2 – Magic Numbers: http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040
********************************************
6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (US)
Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 – 82.5%
********************************************
THE MAGIC NUMBER
Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:
Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 88 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 28.4%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 241 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%
The Huckabee Index – 69 or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed
The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)
Details in spreadsheet: http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040
********************************************
TOTAL DELEGATES
Estimated Total Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,505.5 (518.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,646.5 (377.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 877.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democr...
SUPERDELEGATES
Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/31/08)
Barack Obama – 228 (Source: NBC 3/31/08 plus NC-6)
Remaining Superdelegates – 311
PLEDGED DELEGATES
Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,250.5
Barack Obama – 1,418.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)
OVERALL CONTESTS WON
Hillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30
PRIMARIES WON
Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16
CAUCUSES WON
Hillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14
BLUE AND RED STATES WON
Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)
Total weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,755,095)
Hilary Clinton – 14,047,597
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Status Quo unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+821,164)
Hillary Clinton – 12,858,238
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,208,232 (+614,296)
Hillary Clinton – 12,593,936
Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)
With Florida only added, weighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,460,323)
Hillary Clinton – 14,918,583
With Florida only added, unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+526,392)
Hillary Clinton – 13,729,224
With Michigan only added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,426,786)
Hillary Clinton – 14,375,906
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Michigan only added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+492,855)
Hillary Clinton – 13,186,547
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,132,014)
Hillary Clinton – 15,246,892
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+198,083)
Hillary Clinton – 14,057,533
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT
All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.
Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 236 of 311, or 75.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 232 of 312, or 74.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 224 of 323, or 69.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 220 of 324, or 67.7% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 95 of 311, or 30.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 112 of 312, or 35.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 99 of 323, or 30.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 116 of 324, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON
All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.
Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 207 of 311, or 66.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 312, or 64.9% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 195 of 323, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 191 of 324, or 58.8% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 124 of 311, or 39.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 141 of 312, or 45.0% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 128 of 323, or 39.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 145 of 324, or 44.6% of remaining SDs
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
*********************************************
FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES
These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)
Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 64.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.2%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 63.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.8%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 64.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.0%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 62.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.7%, in all remaining contests
********************************************
POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”
Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.
Pennsylvania (April 22)
American Research Group (3/27) has Senator Clinton at +12.0%
http://americanresearchgroup.com /
Guam (May 3)
No Poll
Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls (2/18) has Senator Obama at +15.0% (This was after Super Tuesday)
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html
North Carolina (May 6)
Public Policy Polling (3/31) has Senator Obama at +18.0%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_0331...
West Virginia (May 13)
Rasmussen Reports (3/20) has Senator Clinton at +28.0%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...
Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll
Oregon (May 20)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll
Montana (June 3)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll
If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!
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MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN
This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.
Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:
"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”
Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.ph...
(emphasis mine)
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BROKERED CONVENTION
Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.
Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention
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OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season.
Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de68e7b6dfa0743...
.
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Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
1 – Current Figures: http://www.box.net/shared/bmi4rvqscs
2 – Magic Numbers: http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040
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100 Things about Me
I'm going with a meme and will try that out as motivation/inspiration to keep some content flowing. So today is 100 Things About Me.
- I was born in Lynn, MA
- I have lived in Salem, MA for approximately 10 years
- I have one brother and one sister
- My parents live in Salem as well
- My parents are still married
- My brother lives one town over
- My sister lives one street over from my parents
- Neither of my siblings are married
- I will have been married for 3 years on September 3rd
- I will have been in a relationship with my wife for twelve years in less than a week
- I will turn 35 on April 13th
- We got married in a restaurant and the ceremony was performed by a close friend
- We did not allow any religious language at all in our wedding ceremony
- We met at Umass Amherst in 1991
- I rarely eat red meat anymore
- My wife is turning me into a "foodie"
- I used to be a beer snob.
- I'm now a wine snob
- We have two cats - Kasha and Leeloo
- Both were adopted from the Northeast Animal Shelter as kittens
- My taste for architecture, art and furniture is typically "contemporary"
- I am an atheist
- I am generally tolerant of the belief systems of others
- I am very much in support of gay marriage
- I'm a die-hard true liberal
- Conservativism seems more like a personality disorder than a philosophy to me
- I will never, EVER vote Republican
- I was once a boy scout and went as far as "Star" before I got bored with it
- I love to read just about anything
- I'm a classic "early adopter" of new technology
- I am also an entrepreneur at heart
- I have trouble with creativity
- I've been a geek for my entire life
- I love both Star Wars and Star Trek but have never dressed up or attended a convention for either
- I have dressed up as Wash from Firefly but only for Halloween
- I spend a lot of time doing maintenance on my digitized media
- I believe that George W. Bush is the worst President in U.S. history
- I read over 400 blogs daily
- I read 3-4 newspapers every day (not cover to cover)
- I believe the U.S. media is filled with incompetent, lazy people who simply type up the talking points they hear from the Republican party uncritically
- I love books AND I love my Kindle. I can see that this will cause conflict in the future
- TV shows I watch include Psych, Battlestar Galactica, Corner Gas, Lost, Top Gear, and The Riches
- I absolutely LOATHE "reality" TV
- I have watched less than 5 minutes of American Idol
- My music taste is insanely eclectic, to the point where I won't even bother discussing it here
- I have lived on the North Shore of Massachusetts for my entire life (other than a few semesters in Amherst MA)
- I consider myself to be mostly self-educated
- I work in software
- I'm a QA Manager
- I hate explaining what I do so I'm not going to
- I recently lost about 45 pounds
- I don't exercise
- I know I should
- I drive a BMW
- I'm slightly embarrassed by that
- I have never and will never own a gun
- I'm not anti-gun in general
- I believe that all guns should be shipped with a trigger lock
- I find it disgusting that the gun lobby keeps stopping this
- I have collector tendencies but am able to keep the worst at bay (no star wars figure collection for me!)
- I would love to live in California
- I hate the seasons, I would prefer year round spring
- I absolutely hate snow
- I enjoy travel but not as much as my wife
- I have driven cross country with a friend
- I think drugs should be legalized
- I live in a house that is bigger than my needs
- I struggle to be green and succeed in some places and fail miserably in others
- I have a very high IQ
- I don't think this makes me any better than anyone else
- I'm not very creative
- I wish I were
- I'm a terrible impulse shopper
- I bought a new car on an impulse once
- I complain a lot
- I suffer from insomnia
- I think I'm an optimist
- Everyone else thinks I'm a pessimist
- I wear glasses
- I can't wear contacts because I'm terribly squeamish about eyes
- I don't think anything on this list will surprise my wife
- My wife is my best friend
- I'm an introvert
- I can be charismatic at times
- I can come off as arrogant
- I can BE arrogant
- I'm terribly lazy about maintaining relationships
- I hate entertaining
- I'm lazy about house chores
- I'm a good listener
- People frequently come to me for advice
- I frequently seek out advice
- I don't believe in ghosts, alien visitation to earth, cryptozoology, or any of the common conspiracy theories
- I distrust my government
- I am pro-choice
- I am anti death penalty
- I believe that evil is a lack of empathy
- My favorite author is Terry Pratchett
- I wish I had the money to sponsor a professional poker career for my brother
- I had a lot of trouble coming up with the items on this list
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